Any goal to reap savings from an Iraq drawdown must be based on military progress with the understanding that if events were to deteriorate on the ground, continued funding would be necessary. It is essential that major defense policy decisions are not dictated by the requirements of the budget calendar—including U.S. strategy in Iraq or Afghanistan.
CBO is currently projecting that the deficit this year will total $1.2 trillion before enactment of the recently-passed stimulus legislation. Potential savings achieved by reducing the amount of emergency supplementals for Iraq will only be a fraction of the proposed deficit reduction efforts. While important, the potential to save up to $90 billion over the next three years is only one piece of any larger deficit reduction plan.
Further, any potential war-related savings will not be realized within the next year. If U.S. military force levels are reduced in Iraq, the cost of redeploying combat forces from Iraq will likely be significantly more expensive than maintaining current force levels. According to scenarios run by CBO, the cost of reducing the number of forces deployed in and around Iraq by 50,000 one year and declining until all troops are withdrawn within two years following would require additional appropriations totaling $166 billion for military operations over a nine-year period.
